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Cowards, pragmatists or stoic idealists: the Socceroos must decide this week how much they dare anger the footballing gods. They approach their final group match on Thursday (Friday AEST) against Paraguay in the box seat to progress to the knockout round, but also with a chance to negotiate with their opponents to do a sensible if unseemly deal that mutually benefits them both.

In almost 94% of simulations of the World Cup by sports data agency Opta, Australia will progress to the round of 32. At the start of the tournament, Opta assessed Australia’s chances of progressing at 59%, underscoring just how important the three points against Turkey were.

Results in other groups have made the Socceroos’ World Cup knock-out path clearer as the days count down to the match against Paraguay. Currently in second in Group D, Australia still remain likely to progress, given they need just a draw to secure an automatic berth in the knock-out round as one of the top two. According to Opta’s simulations, that likelihood is 61%.

The figures – which include, for example, that Spain win the World Cup in almost 14% of simulations – are produced by Opta’s so-called “supercomputer”, which uses betting market odds and additional variables including recent performances to simulate the tournament thousands of times. After each match, the supercomputer simulates the rest of the tournament again, updating its projections based on previous results.

The Socceroos’ quality gives them a strong chance of securing a win or draw against the lower-ranked Paraguay. The chances of a draw, however, are especially high given a point for Paraguay would also certainly take them to the knockout rounds as one of the best third-placed sides. They would finish with four points, a total that almost guarantees progression.

If the score is level in the second half between Australia and Paraguay, there is the possibility that neither team finds the motivation to chase an extra goal at the risk of conceding one at the other end. Running out the clock to each secure a point would, however, expose each team to criticism for failing to pursue victory.

A loss for Australia would leave them on three points. If it is only by a single goal then they have a 96% chance of progressing according to mathematical simulations site Football Meets Data, as one of eight best third-placed sides across the 12 groups.

But if Paraguay become stretched in seeking victory and concede, they will be more exposed to elimination. With a loss by a single goal, they would finish on three points with a goal difference of minus three. The chance to progress drops to 73%, and could go lower based on what happens in other groups.

Under the Socceroos’ most likely outcome of finishing second in Group D they would play their last-32 match against the second-placed team in Group G – either Egypt, Belgium, Iran or New Zealand in Dallas on Friday 3 July. Egypt’s 3-1 victory over New Zealand makes them clear favourites to finish first in the group, as a point against Iran in their final match is likely to be enough. Second place is most likely to go to Belgium, who face New Zealand. Opta has the veteran-laden team led by Youri Tielemans, Thibaut Courtois and Kevin de Bruyne finishing second in 58% of simulations.

If Australia were to lose against Paraguay, finish third and still qualify as one of the best third-placed teams, they face the winners of groups E, I or K. That means a possible clash against contenders Germany, France and Portugal.