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Keir Starmer deployed the entire Labour machine – cabinet ministers, whips, even Gordon Brown – to shore up his support ahead of what was set to be a critical day for his premiership on Tuesday. And it worked.

Labour MPs trooped dutifully through the voting lobbies to block Conservative attempts to refer him to the privileges committee – a process that would have dragged out the Peter Mandelson row and been a painful reminder of Starmer’s original sin of appointing the former Labour spin doctor and minister as his man in Washington.

It is not the first time the prime minister’s senior team has come to his rescue. In February, his cabinet rallied round to see off an immediate challenge to his position from Anas Sarwar, Labour’s leader in Scotland.

But despite public displays of support, several warned then he was not out of danger, with one minister adding that his leadership was “in the endgame”. It did, however, win him some breathing space as mutinous MPs stepped back from the brink.

The danger may not abate for long. The scandal has come in waves – and each time the story has crashed back into the headlines, Starmer’s authority has been eroded. The Guardian’s revelation more than 10 days ago that Mandelson failed his security vetting is just the latest example.

Morgan McSweeney, the prime minister’s former chief of staff, and Philip Barton, the former permanent secretary of the Foreign Office, prompted yet more questions about Starmer’s decision during four hours of testimony before MPs on Tuesday.

While Starmer may have seen off the opposition’s attempt to refer him to the committee that severely weakened Boris Johnson’s premiership, the whole saga – and particularly the government’s decision to whip Labour MPs to vote against – has inflicted even more damage on the prime minister.

“It has played into the terrible narrative that there is something to hide and good decent colleagues will be accused of being complicit in a cover-up,” said one. Fifteen Labour MPs rebelled against the government and dozens more did not vote.

Labour MPs now appear united on two issues: the view that sending Mandelson to Washington in the first place was a catastrophic misjudgment; and a deep frustration that the scandal has sucked up all the oxygen at Westminster just before crucial elections next week.

Some questioned whether the government’s heavy-handed approach was necessary for a vote they probably would have won anyway. Few MPs had the appetite to hand the Tories a victory or unintentionally precipitate a leadership contest before they were ready.

Even some loyalist MPs who are willing Starmer to survive admit that he has expended a worrying amount of political capital. “Keir only has so much credit in the bank with the backbenches now, so he needs to spend it wisely,” said one minister.

Others were more defensive. “He was damned if he did whip MPs to vote against the referral and damned if he didn’t,” a cabinet minister said. “Why take the risk when you don’t have to?”, a cabinet source added.

After parliament prorogues this week, MPs will return to their constituencies to help campaign in what most expect will be a devastating set of elections for Labour right across the country.

Starmer’s allies know his immediate response when the results start to roll in after 7 May is perhaps the biggest moment of jeopardy yet for his leadership. They say he will be humble and frank, echoing the former US president Barack Obama who talked of a “shellacking” when the Democrats took a heavy beating in the 2010 midterms.

Downing Street also wants to “inject some hope” into the government’s narrative, with senior figures pointing to the king’s speech the following week as an opportunity to do so, although they admit this won’t be easy, given the economic fallout from the Middle East crisis.

So Starmer will rely for the third time in as many months on the Labour machine rallying round. But every time he does, his power is further diminished, and his political capital eaten up. “It’ll be his last chance to do so,” said one usually loyal MP. The question remains: will it even work?