So anyway, that toe-poke. The toe-poke. The toe-poke to end all toe-pokes. Here’s Steven Pye on the second most iconic goal in Scotland’s World Cup finals history.

Billy Gilmour, whose dreams were shattered a week before the World Cup, has come along for the ride anyway, and speaks pitchside to the BBC. “The boys are looking really up for it … it doesn’t get any better playing Brazil … we’ve had two great games … confidence … be aggressive … we’ve got a great starting line-up tonight … a great bench also … hopefully tonight it’s a good one and Scotland get what we need.”

The BBC have flashed up a graphic of Scotland’s chances of reaching the knockout stage. It shows that if they win tonight, they’re 100 percent sure of getting through. A draw puts them on 99.99%. A defeat by one goal still gives them an 84.7% chance, while a two-goal loss drops the number down to 66.8%. All fairly promising, but then diminishing returns set in: a three-goal loss reduces the chance of progress to 49.2%, a four-goal defeat and it’s 38.7%, a five-goal stuffing and it’s just 31.3% and … well, if it gets much worse it’d probably be for the best to pack up and pop back over the briny. But there’s a big reminder that all hope is not lost should things go awry tonight.

The first setback for Scotland tonight comes early. Bosnia and Herzegovina have already seen off Italy in the qualifiers, and now they’ve done for Qatar in Group B with a 3-1 win. Bosnia and Herzegovina therefore finish third in the group, and their four-point haul means one less potential lifeline for Scotland, who have three points in Group C, should they lose tonight.

1 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4pts (5-6) -1GD (three games played)
2 Sweden 3pts (6-6) 0GD (two games played)
3 Scotland 3pts (1-1) 0GD (two games)
4 Croatia 3pts (3-4) -1GD (two games)
5 Algeria 3pts (2-4) -2GD (two games) Team conduct -1
6 Paraguay 3pts (2-4) -2GD (two games) Team conduct -11
7 Cape Verde 2pts (2-2) 0GD (two games)
8 Belgium 2pts (1-1) 0GD (two games)
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9 Czechia 1pt (2-3) -1GD (two games)
10 DR Congo 1pt (1-2) -1GD (two games)
11 Ecuador 1pt (0-1) -1GD (two games)
12 Senegal 0pt (3-6) -3GD (two games)

Neymar – who gave everyone a big thumbs-up as he disembarked from the Brazil team bus – doesn’t start. But Carlo Ancelotti has confirmed that he is “available” to come on. There’s one change from the 3-0 win over Haiti: the injured Raphinha is replaced by Rayan … another young Bournemouth star! Quite the evening for the Cherries. He’s one of several present or former Premier League players in the Brazil starting line-up tonight: Alisson (Liverpool), Gabriel (Arsenal), Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle), Casemiro and Matheus Cunha (Manchester United), and Danilo (once of Manchester City) are all present and correct.

As earlier reported by Ewan Murray, the exciting young Bournemouth winger Ben Gannon-Doak starts for Scotland. There’s a first start in this World Cup up front for Lawrence Shankland, Scott McKenna is named in the centre of defence, and Kenny McLean comes into the midfield. Grant Hanley, Kieran Tierney, Ryan Christie and Ché Adams are the players replaced. A more adventurous, front-foot selection by Steve Clarke than many were expecting.

This isn’t the greatest iteration of the Seleção, and the mood back home reflects that. Think Elis Regina’s version of Aquarela do Brasil as opposed to Tom Jobim’s.

Paul MacInnes is also in Miami. He’s been mingling with the Tartan Army, and here’s his report on an all-new American pastime: no Scotsmaxxing, no party!

A reminder of Fifa’s weather protocol. If thunder rumbles and lightning strikes within an eight-mile radius of Miami Stadium, the players will be sent to their dressing rooms, and a 30-minute countdown will begin. Should no other strike be detected during it, the teams will come back out for a 15-minute warm-up after which the game will restart. But if there’s another strike during the countdown, the 30-minute clock resets. And if there’s another … etc., and so on, and so forth. We’ve been here before, with play between France and Iraq suspended for two hours a couple of evenings ago, so it could be a long night.

Ewan Murray is at the Hard Rock Stadium (rebadged Miami Stadium under the yoke of Fifa and formerly known as Pro Player Park, Pro Player Stadium, Dolphins Stadium, Dolphin Stadium, Land Shark Stadium, and Sun Life Stadium). Here’s his up-to-the-minute dispatch, which may well not be his last this evening, if what he’s saying about the weather comes to pass.

I just shared a lift at Miami Stadium with Denilson. He has particularly small feet.

On matters less personal... black clouds are not far in the distance, raising the possibility of a storm delay at some point in this game. Scotland hope the weather is the only threat to their hopes for a smooth evening. Wishful thinking, I fear.

Expect Ben Gannon-Doak to return to the Scotland team. Raphinha misses out for Brazil, with the key intrigue surrounding whether or not Carlo Ancelotti deploys Neymar from the start.