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As the May elections creep closer, the leadership speculation at Westminster grows more intense. Is Keir Starmer safe and, if so, for how long? When will Angela Rayner’s tax affairs be resolved, and will she return to the cabinet? Who has Andy Burnham done a deal with to get back to Westminster, and would MPs support him if he did? Why has Wes Streeting gone so quiet?

To the frustration of many – not least the prime minister himself – discussions about who is up and who is down have long been a staple of Westminster life. But as the security of the prime minister’s position has ebbed and flowed in recent months, it has intensified. So where do Starmer – and his putative rivals for No 10 – stand?

Keir Starmer

Despite feverish leadership speculation, and Starmer’s rock-bottom public approval ratings, the most likely scenario remains that he stumbles on. The quiet, loyal majority of the parliamentary Labour party may feel deeply despondent about their predicament, but many feel that ousting him remains the nuclear option.

“We came into government promising we’d be different from the Tories by cleaning up politics and bringing in some stability,” says one cabinet source. “Stability is the only one we’ve got left.” Many MPs are fearful that replacing Starmer looks self-serving during a cost of living crisis – and that the public would not forgive them for more turmoil.

While few backbenchers are enthusiastic about Starmer leading them into the next election, they worry there is no clear replacement or obvious route to depose him, and that whoever comes next may not be an improvement when actually faced with the big challenges of governing. There is also a war on.

Starmer’s allies say he feels he has a big personal mandate to try to deliver change and needs to be given time to do it. “Everything changes so quickly in politics, one minute MPs are settled and the next they want him gone. People need to take the long view – it’s three years until the next election and he has time to turn things round,” one loyalist said.

But despite insisting Starmer would fight any leadership challenge, his allies acknowledge his party is unhappy and public antipathy is hard to reverse – and accept that unless he changes that, he won’t be taking them into the next election. When the herd moves, it’s over.

Angela Rayner

Rayner has spent the eight months since she quit the cabinet over her tax affairs walking a line between loyalty and interventionism, regularly reminding Labour colleagues of her policy ideas from workers’ rights to immigration.

Starmer has said he wants the Labour heavyweight back in his cabinet – and she is thought likely to return if the job were big enough. There are still some on the backbenches who wonder if she really wants to be PM – though she has privately made it clear she does.

Rayner’s team is hopeful that her HMRC investigation is coming to an end – potentially by the local elections – but are aware underpaying stamp duty remains a big problem to overcome. They are also anxious about a renewed focus on her private life.

Some allies have been urging Rayner to mount an immediate challenge in the wake of potentially catastrophic results, though she has told friends she would not want to be the one to trigger any contest, and there has been some speculation that she does not yet have the numbers.

Andy Burnham

The Northern mayor’s stock has risen among MPs and the public since his time in Gordon Brown’s cabinet, when he failed to stand out from the crowd. These days, he is the only major Labour politician with positive public approval ratings.

A more self-confident and down to earth figure than he was back then, after almost a decade in charge of Greater Manchester, Burnham also now has a vision of how the country should be run – though not one everybody backs.

In January, Burnham was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton byelection, which Labour then lost to the Greens, but is expected to try again. “I can’t remove the kind of feeling that some day I will try and go back. I’m not ruling it out,” he said this week.

The key question is how – as he can’t run for leader unless he’s an MP. Allies suggest he has already done a deal with a sitting MP who would stand down, triggering a byelection, and are confident he wouldn’t be blocked by the party’s ruling NEC for a second time.

The one thing holding him back, they say, is whether he would have enough support among MPs to reach the nomination threshold. While a few months ago, many were sceptical, more are now looking to him as the answer.

Wes Streeting

The health secretary has kept a relatively low profile since the dramatic day in February when the party’s Scottish leader, Anas Sarwar, called for Starmer to go. Streeting had insisted he backed the prime minister and was not intending to move against him, but allies then suggested his ambition had not been thwarted.

His critics, however, suggested he had “overreached” with his less-than-subtle manoeuvrings for the top job. Perhaps overcompensating, Streeting urged voters last month to “give the guy a chance” as he insisted none of his colleagues would move against Starmer.

While not expected to trigger a contest himself, Streeting has not ruled out throwing his hat in the ring should a contest materialise. But reports he already has the numbers – 80 – to get on the ballot paper have been met with some scepticism by Labour MPs.

Many recognise his talents as a communicator, his inspiring backstory and his ability to inject humour and hope into the government’s narrative. But others believe that – despite pitching left on issues including Gaza and welfare – he remains too right wing to make it through the party.

His opponents also argue that he remains tainted by his friendship with Peter Mandelson, despite releasing their text exchanges. Perhaps more likely is that he does a deal with a more leftwing candidate and gets one of the big jobs of state, rather than ending up in No 10.

Ed Miliband

The climate secretary regularly tops cabinet rankings among the party membership, so if he ran in any contest, the chances are he could win. He is also among a handful of ministers believed to have really got a grip on their departments.

But Miliband has been here before, and friends of the former Labour leader say he and his family have not forgotten the painful personal cost of running last time, and would also be apprehensive about once again being in the media firing line.

In addition, one ally suggested that – having been rejected once by the electorate in 2015 – he would be under pressure to hold a general election if he took over.

A more likely scenario is that he plays the role of kingmaker – trusted by one of the leading soft left candidates to help organise their campaign. And in return, be awarded a big job in government.

Or, he could be part of a cabinet revolt – if disastrous election results prompt what one minister described as a “collective nervous breakdown” in the cabinet – and they need a spokesperson who is respected by Starmer, to tell him the game is up.