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For over two decades, Melbourne Storm have been the standard for how an elite sporting organisation operates in Australia. Led by head coach Craig Bellamy and head of football Frank Ponissi, the Storm have known nothing but success. The only time they have missed finals under Bellamy was during a ban following the 2010 salary cap scandal. In 23 years with Bellamy in charge, the Storm have won nine minor premierships, finished in the top four 18 times and played in 11 grand finals, winning five. Success has spanned players, spanned time and spanned the changing nature of the game.

Death, taxes and the Storm contending for the NRL premiership were three of life’s certainties. Death is coming, taxes are going nowhere but for the first time Melbourne are facing a situation they know little of: failure.

These are uncharted waters for Melbourne Storm. They have lost six straight games for the first time in Bellamy’s 23 seasons. They have not conceded 500 points in a season since 2004, when they conceded 21.54 points per game. A third of the way through this season they have already conceded 232, allowing 29 points per game. The Warriors ended a 17-game losing streak against the Storm three weeks back. Souths won their first ever game in Melbourne at the weekend. The Storm now sit 16th on the ladder with their only two wins coming against the two other teams in the bottom three – the winless Dragons and the Eels, who have conceded 48-plus points in three of their eight games this season.

The Storm are in dire straits, and the demeanour of Craig Bellamy over the last six weeks has revealed just how deep the mire is. Following the blown lead against the Cowboys in round four, he said it was “worrying” and that he was “frustrated”. After conceding 50 points to Penrith, he said the Storm needed to “go a little bit harder” while threatening to drop players. He blew up deluxe and hooked players during the Warriors loss. At Canberra he was exasperated and without answers. Following the home hammering to Souths, Bellamy said it was “the most embarrassed I’ve been in my footy life”.

Bellamy has claims to be both the greatest coach in rugby league history and the finest mentor in the history of Australian sport, yet he seems to be flummoxed at the current state of this team. It is starting to dawn that there is no quick fix – a work hard and drop some players scenario – and the tectonic plates have shifted. The Storm’s problems are fundamental in nature.

There has, without doubt, been a wave of bad luck contributing to the fall. Ryan Papenhuyzen’s retirement was not exactly surprising, given his flirtation with the failed R360 competition, but the timing gave the club little time to prepare. The Eli Katoa situation was near unprecedented and the Storm have every right to feel aggrieved that their player was not given the best possible care while on international duty. Tui Kamikamica suffered a stroke in early April that will keep him sidelined for a significant period.

The sharpness of the Storm’s decline though is far more about more controllable factors than the bad luck the club has endured.

Melbourne have built a lot of their success on how they structure their salary cap. Crudely it can be called a “stars ‘n’ scrubs” approach, where three or four genuine stars are combined with a few second-tier players and a squad made up of cheap veterans or untested youngsters. It has proven a highly successful approach – when the stars are performing, the second-tier players are on the paddock and the remainder of the squad can perform the basics to a standard that is competitive in the NRL.

The stars simply are not getting it done, with Cameron Munster the biggest concern. Munster ranks third in missed tackles per game with 4.5 while he has just a single line break assist in the last six games. Harry Grant has run for fewer than 35 metres in four of his last five with just a single try assist and two offloads over that run. Jahrome Hughes has 10 try assists and has been the best of the triumvirate but his form is down. A team cannot be successful if its best players aren’t performing.

The main problem the Storm have, though, sits below the top line – the club’s recruitment policy combined with how the game has evolved. Part of the legend of Bellamy and the Storm system has been how average players become major contributors by doing three or four things well. They know their role. They do it. They don’t drop balls. They don’t miss tackles. They don’t give away dumb penalties. The depth at the Storm becomes a major problem when these players don’t perform their roles. Defensively, the Storm have never been worse.

The attempt to recruit Zac Lomax is indicative. He – and Stefano Utoikamanu a year prior – are not the type of players Melbourne typically invest salary cap space on. The Lomax situation was unsettling when the club is almost never unsettled, while Utoikamanu has been charged with leading a forward pack that is getting manhandled (letting Nelson Asofa-Solomona walk has not helped this either). The pack situation is particularly puzzling as the competition has moved away from bigger bodies to more agile forwards. The Storm have a smaller pack but a lack of ability to create quick play-the-balls has rendered the pack ineffective.

With the likes of Tyran Wishart and Nick Meaney heading to Perth next season and Munster and Hughes both north of 31, the Storm are staring down the barrel of a rebuild for the first time in a quarter-century.

There is no quick fix at the Storm. The issue is not work rate. It is not making some team changes. It is highly unlikely to be coaching. The Storm have a problem that cannot be solved quickly: a talent deficit. They have playmakers who are struggling to create opportunities. A pack that is getting absolutely mauled. And outside backs who are all at sea defensively.

There will be no Penrith comeback like last season. Melbourne may sneak their way into the finals. But they are not set up to be any kind of serious threat and are unlikely to be until they undertake the required rebuild.