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Summary

It will be up to smarter minds than me to unpick tonight’s clash and the series as a whole. One of those is Angus Fontaine, who has filed his match report, which is my cue to pour myself something cold and refreshing. Thanks for your company this series, I’ll see you back here soon.

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And that brings to a close a thrilling and incident-packed series. Quite how it fits into the Origin cannon I’m not quite sure. Game I was defined by the send off. Game II was a blowout. And the fallout from tonight may yet depend on whether Jack Bostock’s fingertips can be proven to have touched the ball in the coming hours and days.

NSW may now go on a tear, but the amount of changes Laurie Daley made throughout the series demonstrates this is not a settled core group of players. However, they are blessed to possess Nathan Cleary, the footballer of his generation.

Queensland began the series as underdogs, rarely turned to the man who near single-handedly won last year’s NRL grand final, and then underwhelmed as favourites at home. Although Billy Slater’s selections were more settled, an argument could be made that some of that was simply down to necessity and not supreme form or ability.

Perhaps this is Origin at its purest? Two flawed teams laying everything on the line.

That is now two out of three for NSW, and five from nine since 2018 and the end of that long era of Maroon dominance.

NSW win the 2026 State of Origin

Isaah Yeo performs his duties as captain, then moves over to his teammates, coaches, and families, before hoisting the shield to the sky as blue confetti cascades on to Queensland soil.

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Cameron Munster looks thoroughly dejected as he races through the list of people he has to thank. That was not the speech he would have expected to make before kick-off.

Nathan Cleary is the 2026 Wally Lewis medalist

Player of the match in game one and game three, leading his side to the shield, it’s no surprise Nathan Cleary has the Wally Lewis medal hanging around his neck.

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Nathan Cleary is Player of the Match

The halfback’s early brace set a tempo Queensland were never able to match.

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“Has that bunker footage been released? Maybe it wasn’t touched but surely that bunker vision has to be released?” I haven’t seen it yet Marlon Maton, but I can guarantee every frame will be dissected like the Zapruder footage tomorrow.

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“With or without the try which I didn’t see the knock-on but if I’m going to trust people who know a lot more about NRL then me, even without it still a commanding victory.” Absolutely Euan Scott. In the context of the flow of the game it was a massive moment, but NSW were thoroughly deserved winners.

It was a chaotic encounter, one that was far from a classic from a pure footballing standpoint but full of incident nonetheless.

The officiating will take centre stage north of the Tweed, but Queensland made too many individual errors to apply consistent pressure and remove the possibility the referee’s whistle might count against them.

The Blues were quicker, slicker, and more disciplined all night, despite losing Tedesco and Bostock to HIAs and having to reshuffle an already much-changed backline on the fly.

Laurie Daley has tears in his eyes. He puffs out his cheeks and releases a sigh of enormous relief. One of the most popular men in the sport was at risk of damaging his legacy with the way the Blues were tracking, but his side stood up handsomely in Brisbane and ran out worthy winners.

Full-time: Queensland 12-30 NSW

New South Wales domination at Suncorp Stadium. They are the 2026 State of Origin champions.

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TRY! Queensland 12-30 NSW (Young, 80)

There’s still time for Hudson Young to cross after the siren. Delirium for NSW.

79 mins: Ponga gets dragged in goal following a huge chase from Crichton, Best and Barnett. Moses celebrates performatively like a Gladiator. NSW are relishing every second of this.

78 mins: Queensland kick long early in the set, almost look like picking up the pieces downfield but the ball comes loose on the right and Young can celebrate in front of the home fans.

77 mins: Barnet, Young, Martin, the Blues just pummel the midfield until the handover in the right corner. NSW are demonstrating a show of force now. This is an intimidating finale.

75 mins: NSW grind out of their red zone, reach 40m, and are handed a set restart at the ruck. The Blues are rewriting the script at Suncorp Stadium now. Second best for most of game one, outplayed in game two, and they have come to Brisbane and beaten Queensland in their back yard. Cobbo shows the toll of the night with a sloppy play-the-ball and NSW celebrate heartily, leaving no Queenslander in any doubt how much this means to them.

74 mins: NSW challenge a knock-on call against Koula. Not only does it waste some time but it’s successful. Everything is coming up Blue tonight.

73 mins: Munster and Moses have a bit of a scuffle off the ball after the Queenslander hit the No 7 late and with intent after a long kick. It went unpunished.

72 mins: Walker tries to the loopy cutout pass but Best hauls it in and the Blues can steady. Suncorp Stadium is in disbelief.

Penalty! Queensland 12-26 NSW (Cleary, 71)

From 38m out, just to the right of the uprights, Nathan Cleary seals the series for NSW.

70 mins: The Bostock knock-on call, now the Plath offside. It’s hard not to feel Queensland have not had the rub of the green. Frustrated, the Maroons lift in the tackle, and Cleary can take an age off the clock with a long range kick for goal.

No Try Queensland!

69 mins: NSW settle things down up front, Cleary kicks to the right corner on the last, it comes back in Blue hands but Strange – deputising at right centre – is tackled and there’s a handover.

“Queenslander!” bellows the Suncorp crowd as the Maroons try to run out of their own half again through Walsh. They think their hero deserves a penalty but there’s nothing doing. Walker hoists a bomb on the last – and for the third time tonight it’s allowed to bounce – Koula looks oblivious at fullback, and nobody near him is in their regular position. The Steeden bobbles into space – and Toia is first to it, steaming on it like a freight train and he crosses!

But now the Bunker is bringing play back to look at the kick chase for offside. Plath is about two inches ahead of the kicker, and he plays no part in the kick chase, but he is within ten metres of the action as Toia scores, so the try is rubbed off.

Deary me. I can only imagine what The Courier Mail is going to look like tomorrow.

67 mins: Queensland have to make something happen – and Walsh and Nanai almost do that – but the ball goes to ground on the 40m line as they try to run out of defence.

65 mins: Queensland are still in this, just, but those three missed kicks are proving costly. Meanwhile, Ethan Strange has been activated as the fifth interchange because Jack Bostock has been ruled out with a category 1 HIA.

TRY! Queensland 12-24 NSW (Fifita, 64)

Tino and Plath set the drive up under the crossbar. The ball gets shipped out to Walsh on the right edge but he’s kept in check. Queensland go that way again, Walker throws a mongrel bounce pass, but Toia does brilliantly to gather it, step outside Best, evade Murray, and shovel the pass out to Fifita to dive over in the right corner.

Walker misses from the right touchline! Queensland now 0/3 off the boot.

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64 mins: Queensland try to get something going in midfield but there’s no impetus. Walker’s long bomb is allowed to bounce and NSW lose their shape momentarily but the ball bobbles into touch. However, Munster challenges the call, hoping for an obstruction against Crichton, and the Bunker favours the Maroons this time. Queensland get the ball 20m out.

63 mins: Now it’s Bostock’s turn for an HIA after he landed heavily contesting a high ball in attack. With Tedesco already off for the night NSW don’t have much on the outside to play with.

62 mins: “As someone who doesn’t watch a crazy amount of NRL, that non-knock on call has completely ruined what I thought I understood about this game,” emails Marlon Maton. Not just you, but everyone in the Channel 9 commentary box. As Cameron Smith said, these calls just can’t be incorrect.

60 mins: Moses sends one of his massive kicks straight into the head of Nanai at close range. The Maroon was attempting a smother, but that one will sting, and possibly require an HIA.

58 mins: Walker is back on the field and Walsh slips into fullback. NSW execute a restart set but all the energy has been sapped out of the stadium and the TV experts can only dwell on the knock-on call. According to Brad Fittler, who has spoken to the officials, the Bunker believes Bostock didn’t touch the ball in the air. It seemed to most other observers that he did.

CONVERTED TRY! Queensland 8-24 NSW (Best, 56)

Queensland kick long to the left then Flegler busts a tackle to set up a promising drive. Is this the surge? No! Munster, then Grant are tackled at the ruck then the Hammer is scragged on the left wing. Munster has to kick on the backfoot to the right corner. There’s an aerial contest. The ball bounces favourably to Best. Where he runs. And runs. And runs. And runs! Too nimble for Nikora. Too speedy for Ponga. Too canny for the Hammer. An all-time legendary moment for NSW.

Oh wow. Replays show Bostock’s fingers touched the ball in the aerial contest and surely knocked it on. The TV commentators – Blues as well as Maroons – cannot believe the try has been allowed to stand, but it has been cleared. That is going to blow up. Unless the bunker has a different angle?

Cleary makes it four from four and NSW are almost home.

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55 mins: NSW are now just grinding for five tackles and relying on Moses to kick them over halfway. Queensland are so far unable to capitalise. Again Ponga is the dangerman, coming in from first receiver and jagging to the left. This time he gets the benefit of Klein’s whistle with Crichton penalised for a high shot.

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53 mins: NSW only make 25m coming out of defence but Moses releases the pressure with a booming long kick. It takes Queensland three tackles to cross halfway and look for the crash play with Nanai. Ponga tries to take the game on but there’s nothing he can do about Murray executing an incredible diving tackle that jolts the ball free.

51 mins: It’s now three tries to two, but the pair of missed conversions means NSW are still 10 points clear on the scoreboard. Queensland are coming though. Flegler runs hard, then Walsh has a go, before Munster causes chaos with a bomb that the Blues allow to bounce. The crowd are full into this now and the Maroons can sense this is their time.

Missed conversion: Reece Walsh takes over kicking duties, but he drags his touchline effort across the face of the uprights.

TRY! Queensland 8-18 NSW (Cobbo, 49)

Set restart, then another, Grant working over the NSW markers. Cotter takes the hit-up under the crossbar, can Queensland find some room? They try down the left but the Blues are well set despite some quick hands. Cobbo can only grubber infield on the last … but hang on! The ball ricochets off Koula’s shins and straight back into the winger’s arms and he runs over unopposed for the most fortunate of tries!

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48 mins: Ponga is now filling in at first receiver, which means Walsh is free to bust the line from fullback. Queensland gain some momentum and the crowd hollers for a set restart as Grant darts forward. On the last the ball is kicked to the left corner where Nawaqanitawase is pinged for a knock-on in the air. The Maroons are building.

46 mins: NSW just keep on trucking, running the ball hard into the fatiguing Queensland defensive line. On the last the ball is kicked high to the right where Martin wins it in the air, but Munster pilfers it on the ground. The Maroons can run it out of defence, at which point the old sparring partners Martin and Munster come together again and the big Panther concedes a penalty. The home side really needed that.

45 mins: Not for long though as Capewell coughs up possession for the second time this half! He’s gang tackled by Martin and Crichton and the ball comes loose. The Maroons need a change of momentum, and Reece Walsh coming on to the field might just be it. Walker makes way for his HIA.

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44 mins: Walker is fit to resume but his short drop-out is reclaimed by the Blues and NSW get another full set inside 20m. Fonua-Blake sets up the drive on the left then it’s through hands at pace for Koula to steam into the line on the right. The Blues can smell blood. Cleary darts into the line, kicks, then collects the ricochet. Quick hands to Moses – but he’s smuggled into touch. The Maroons get a brief reprieve.

43 mins: NSW just get on with business and spend a set inside 30m. All their attention is on the left edge, until the last, when Crichton dabs through an inch perfect grubber that Ponga can only smother in-goal. Perfect start to the half by the Blues.

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42 mins: Now Walker is down and groggy! He slipped horribly approaching the tackle on Best and got whacked from behind by a teammate.

41 mins: Capewell drops the ball in contact on tackle three of the restart set. Yikes!

Billy Slater remains calm, urging his team just to keep hold of the ball and back his side’s dangerous footballers.

James Tedesco has failed his HIA. Koula will play the second half at fullback and NSW will have to rethink their forward rotations.

The Maroons have work to do. They looked on the ropes during a spell midway through the half when their game was littered with errors. Their ball-players are yet to exert themselves on the contest and they are running to stand still around the ground. The impact of Martin and Haas together in the starting lineup, with Fonua-Blake coming off the bench has been tough for the Queensland forwards to resist. Billy Slater will be thankful for a couple of Bostock spillages or the scoreline could be even uglier.

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NSW head to the sheds with a commanding lead at Suncorp Stadium. That is the most complete the Blues have looked this series, organised in defence and attack, limiting the unforced errors, maximising the kicking power of Mitch Moses, and taking the opportunities handed to them by Queensland.

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Cameron Munster has a good old whinge at Ashley Klein before leaving the field, arguing his team have been treated harshly at the ruck. The referee isn’t having a bar of it.

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Half-time: Queensland 4-18 NSW

The Blues try to pinch a late score down the left but Queensland close the door. NSW might regret not stealing a field goal.

40 mins: Bostock spills the long bomb from Munster and the Maroons can launch one last attack. BAM! Nikora with the hit-up and he collides head-to-head with Tedesco and the fullback was out cold before he hit the ground. The No 1 goes off, replaced by Koula, and we might not see him again tonight. Play restarts with a penalty to the Blues, because earlier in Nikora’s run he was penalised for a bumper bar to the face of Bostock.

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38 mins: Munster kicks on the fourth tackle of the restart set, buying territory. NSW don’t mind as Fonua-Blake charges into the fray, eating up the ground, busting through tackles. A gap emerges on the left and Best storms through it with intent. NSW keep the ball moving but by the last Moses runs out of momentum and Queensland can clear.

TRY! Queensland 4-18 NSW (Tabuai-Fidow, 35)

What have Queensland got? Grant tries a grubber on tackle three but it bounces back off blue socks! Capewell almost crashes over. Walker throws a Harbour Bridge pass out to Fifita that Bostock reads out of the hand. It’s all a bit disjointed and improvised. Then the Maroons run on the last, the Hammer shapes to go to his winger, Capewell runs a beautiful straight line dummy, and the Dolphin shrugs off Crichton to splash over in the corner! Massive, massive moment for Queensland. Boy they needed that.

They also needed Walker to convert, but the dead-eye just tugs his sideline kick narrowly wide.

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34 mins: Queensland make decent ground on the left, then Tabuai-Fidow wins a knock-on against Nawaqanitawase in an aerial duel. The Maroons have their first gilt-edged attacking platform of the night. They have to capitalise.

32 mins: I’m not sure anybody expected this. The Blues are absolutely tearing this decider apart before half-time. Queensland need to play the Get Out of Jail Free Reece Walsh card, and soon.

CONVERTED TRY! Queensland 0-18 NSW (Murray, 30)

NSW secure the restart set then ambush Cobbo as he runs the ball back! The winger bounces off one tackle, into the knees of Young – is he concussed? – Cleary pays no mind, coming in over the top and pinching the Steeden like taking candy from a baby. As they have all night the Blues get to work straight away and Murray is allowed to roll, spin, and muscle his way under the posts one out, despite the attention of Loiero and Cotter. That was poor defending.

Cleary cannot miss from under the crossbar.

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28 mins: Queensland are on the ropes. NSW are the faster, stronger, smarter of the two sides tonight, and it’s the Maroons who are paying for their errors.

CONVERTED TRY! Queensland 0-12 NSW (Cleary, 26)

Queensland settle into the midfield arm-wrestle and almost catch out Bostock with a deep kick to the right corner. Then on tackle four with the Blues pummeling their way out of defence Klein pings the Maroons for slowing down the ruck! That came out of nowhere! NSW flick the switch and immediately fly down the right edge. Martin steps inside Munster and puts Crichton through. He rides one tackle, holds his ground, offloads to Nawaqanitawase, the try line is nearing at speed but he needs support – and Cleary is on his shoulder ready to dive over for his second try of the night!

From a near identical position to his first conversion, Cleary kicks his second two-pointer of the night.

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25 mins: Queensland puncture a little damage down the right coming out of their own half but again it’s another poor kick from Munster on the last. Cobbo recovers it and incites Grant to do better – which he does – and a line drop-out looks assured but Bostock does magnificently gathering in goal and running around his posts to just inch back into play. Moses again turns defensive pressure into an afterthought with a huge kick.

23 mins: Finally Queensland have some attacking footy – but it’s pretty lacklustre and the kick on the last is unthreatening. NSW are happy to grind their way out of their red zone and marvel at the enormous power of Moses’ kicking game as he smashes another drive down the fairway on tackle four that turns Cobbo on his heels.

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21 mins: Queensland finally complete a set and establish parity for the first time in about 10 minutes of non-stop punishment. NSW return in kind, but there’s a flashpoint on the kick chase. Ponga marks it, dropping to his knees, Young steams in and catches the fullback high with his chasing tackle. You’ve seen players sent to the bin for that kind of action but Klein acknowledges how low Ponga dropped as he took the catch and the Blues remain with 13.

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19 mins: NSW are fizzing! Haas rampages down the right edge, offloads, the Blues spread the ball quickly to the left with two long spirals, Best straightens up and gets within sniffing distance of the line. Young is in support but he can’t find the offload to Bostock and Queensland survive. Survival is literally all it is for the Maroons right now though. NSW have come to play.

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17 mins: A solid restart set sees the Blues advance to halfway. Queensland are conservative for four sets then expand down the left with Ponga entering the line – but it’s another error! The final pass to Cobbo is too hot and the winger brushes the whitewash as he tries to haul it in.

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15 mins: NSW have upped the tempo in the past seven or eight minutes, stringing passes together, dragging the Queensland defence from left to right, and forcing errors under the high ball. This is a purposeful start from the Blues.

CONVERTED TRY! Queensland 0-6 NSW (Cleary, 14)

New South Wales deservedly open the scoring, and Nathan Cleary is the man who does it, accepting the ball from dummy-half Robson, stepping off his right to wrong-foot Capewell then showing strength to hold off three Maroon tacklers on the line. He goes back and adds the extras from jut to the right of the posts.

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13 mins: “This is the best NSW have looked all series” bemoans former Queensland skipper Cameron Smith. The Blues are now dominating territory and possession – and from the latest sortie Cobbo knocks on in the air under pressure on the right wing. This is building ominously for NSW.

11 mins: Another poor moment for Cotter as he drops a simple one-out pass and the Blues have a scrum 25m out on the right wing. Moses tries to dart off the back on an angle to the left, then Barnett is held up. This is lovely ball playing from NSW. They come again to the left, Tedesco is prominent, but Bostock opts to cut inside and secure possession instead of testing the sideline. Cleary kicks on the last to the right corner this time but Nawaqanitawase knocks on in the air under pressure from Tabuai-Fidow.

10 mins: The Blues play to the right behind the scrum but Nawaqanitawase has no room to manoeuvre. NSW then get to work under the posts. Martin is busy, drawing tacklers in. There’s a quick ruck, NSW go through hands to the left, Moses is sharp, Best is brilliant, but Bostock can’t hold on and the simple jog into the corner is spilled! Massive opportunity.

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9 mins: NSW cross halfway in possession for the first time and Cleary can launch an attacking kick. He goes to the left corner where Bostock leaps with Fifita and the rookie forces the knock-on and a 10m scrum.

8 mins: NSW still can’t make any yardage, despite the wriggling and jinking of Tedesco. They are very relieved to have the superboot of Mitch Moses at halfback, kicking them out of danger for the fourth set in a row. Queensland execute a simple set and then have the Blues under pressure inside their own 30 – until Cotter is harshly punished for holding on and he concedes a six-again.

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6 mins: Queensland kick to the right then get to work infield inside the 30m line. Capewell almost busts the defensive line on the left edge but the Blues scramble well. They hold up Nikora on the last to delay the play-the-ball and the Maroons can only invite Tabuai-Fidow to accept a tackle on the last and hand the ball over.

4 mins: NSW make no ground coming off their own line so Moses kicks from 20 to 20. Ponga and Cobbo get their hands on the ball as Queensland reach halfway, setting up the first play through hands of the night, to the right, with Toia gaining good metres. The kick on the last is deep to the right corner, where To’o is no longer posted. Bostock deals with the danger.

Again NSW go nowhere coming from a standing start but another huge kick releases the pressure. That is until Young concedes the first penalty of the night, lifting Fifita off his feet. It looked worse than it was and the Raider made sure he placed his opponent down safely. A chance for the home side nonetheless.

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2 mins: Queensland kick off and Barnett takes the first hit up. Young, Yeo, and Haas take their turns, before Tedesco is crunched. The Blues kick long, Queensland run it back for four tackles then Munster belts a beautiful kick that bobbles in-goal, turning Tedesco around and putting NSW on the back foot.

Kick-off!

The 2026 State of Origin decider is under way …

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Formalities taken care of, kick-off is imminent.

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The atmosphere flips as Cameron Munster jogs into the cauldron. He leads Queensland, top to toe in maroon, and the crowd rises in acclaim.

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Here come the Blues! The roof nearly comes off Suncorp Stadium as a deafening rumble of boos shakes the venue to its foundations. In case you were unaware, NSW are wearing sky blue jerseys and navy shorts.

Jai Arrow, wearing his Queensland jersey, fights back the tears as he brings the State of Origin shield on to the pitch.

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As the two sets of players finalise their preparations, a quick recap on the team news:

Queensland’s starting XIII is unchanged, following just the one tweak ahead of game two. There are a couple of switches on the interchange with Pat Carrigan and Lindsay Collins swapping places in the sick bay, and the in-form Jeremiah Nanai forcing his way onto the bench ahead of Kulikefu Finefeuiaki.

NSW selection remains a free for all. Jack Bostock and Bradman Best have been handed their first run-ons of the series, and Stephen Crichton has been recalled, leaving James Tedesco as the only outside back to start all three matches. Mitchell Moses retains his place alongside Nathan Cleary in the halves despite a quiet showing in game two and Ethan Strange excelling as his understudy in game one. The forward pack is comparatively stable, but it still includes Hudson Young’s third second row partner this winter, with the roulette wheel stopping on Liam Martin.

It is cool and dry and still under the Lang Park lights, but Andrew Johns suggests it’s a little slippery underfoot.

Ashley Klein is the man in the middle once more. He was crucial on opening night, he’ll be hoping he has less to do in the decider.

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Billy Slater matches with: “It’s been a great prep”.

Tactically: “Be confident and go and get your game… Chase your game, go and get it.”

“The boys are really dialled in,” enthuses Laurie Daley. “They know what they need to do. They just have to do it.”

Tactically: “Expect some different interchange plans”.

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The two five eighths have said a few words on their ways into Suncorp Stadium.

“Don’t go chasing points or opportunities,” was Cameron Munster’s insight. “Win the little moments that can build into big moments.”

Nathan Cleary’s mantra: “Control”.

Speaking of Channel 9, this is the kind of night they would have previously looked to roll out Karl Stefanovic. Not any more.

Andrew Abdo has just been on Channel Nine spruiking the NRL’s new massive broadcast deal.

Nine Entertainment and Foxtel have retained the media rights to the NRL in a $5.3bn deal which will see the games aired on the free-to-air network and the global streaming company DAZN until 2034.

The Australian Rugby League Commission (ARLC) chair Peter V’landys said the seven-year agreement from 2028 marked “a defining moment for rugby league”…

V’landys claimed the NRL was “the most viewed program in Australia and in the Pacific”.

“Don’t listen to what other people tell you, especially down south, we are the No 1-viewed sport in Australia,” he said. “The deal future-proofs the game for everybody … our ambition is to grow the game globally.”

NSW XIII

NSW: 1. James Tedesco, 2. Jack Bostock, 3. Bradman Best, 4. Stephen Crichton, 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase, 6. Mitchell Moses, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Payne Haas, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Mitch Barnett, 11. Hudson Young, 12. Liam Martin, 13. Isaah Yeo (c).

Interchange: 14. Cameron Murray, 15. Addin Fonua-Blake, 16. Haumole Olakau’atu, 17. Blayke Brailey, 18. Ethan Strange, 19 Tolutau Koula.
Reserve: 20. Victor Radley

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Queensland XIII

QLD: 1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Jojo Fifita, 6. Cameron Munster (c), 7. Sam Walker, 8. Thomas Flegler, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11. Briton Nikora, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Reuben Cotter.

Interchange: 14. Max Plath, 15. Pat Carrigan, 16. Jeremiah Nanai, 17. Trent Loiero, 18. Reece Walsh, 19. Murray Taulagi.
Reserve: 20. Corey Horsburgh

Since the beginning of the three-game Origin series in 1982, there have been 10 deciders played in Queensland; seven have been won by the home state, three by NSW and a sole draw in 1999.

This series’ game three looks to be an uphill battle for the Blues after they were battered in front of a Queensland-centric crowd at the MCG in game two. In Brisbane, it will be a different story again, and there are doubts about whether the Blues can win the decider against a loud and proud Maroons crowd at home.

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If Martin brings the mayhem, Cleary plays a blinder and Best finds room to gallop, NSW can give their longsuffering coach a sweet goodbye. But if Queensland pick up where they left off in Melbourne and snap NSW’s spirit with an early points blitz, the Suncorp earth might open up and swallow the men in Blue as it has so many others.

Preamble

Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of men’s State of Origin Game 3. Kick-off between Queensland and New South Wales at Suncorp Stadium is scheduled for 8.05pm AEST.

This midwinter Wednesday has already treated us to a Lionel Messi miracle, a Novak Djokovic Centre Court epic, and 40C temperatures in Le Tour, but trust me, the best is yet to come. Hubristic? Not a chance. This is a rivalry and spectacle that never fails to deliver.

For the third year in a row and the 25th occasion in Origin history Queensland and New South Wales require a deciding game to establish which heavyweight will take ownership of the shield.

The Maroons start as favourites. They have home advantage, a settled squad, a superior coach, and the wind in their sails following a comprehensive victory in Melbourne three weeks ago. The series would already be in the bag were it not for Kalyn Ponga’s indiscretion and James Tedesco’s brilliance in Sydney.

Laurie Daley is under the pump and his latest team selection does little to suggest that his latest stint as Blues coach has been spent following a meticulously prepared masterplan. Billy Slater, by contrast has made only one change to his starting XIII all series.

I’ll be back with final team lists and more shortly. Please send me your emails and keep me company throughout the evening. The address is jonathan.howcroft.freelance@theguardian.com.