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It is the question that holds the nation in suspense: should Tony Popovic start tearaway forward Nestory Irankunda in the Socceroos’ final World Cup group match against Paraguay?

Fans have made their opinions known. So too have commentators and former Socceroos. (Most say yes.) One of the few to restrain themselves was Gianfranco Circati, father of Socceroos defender Alessandro, who responded more politely at a press conference this week: “I’m not a coach, so I can’t answer the question.”

Paul Okon, Popovic’s assistant coach, did not confirm Irankunda would start on Tuesday in Oakland, but he did flag the team would take on a new look against Paraguay. “Is the starting lineup already decided? No, not yet. But, yeah, you could expect maybe some change.”

Irankunda’s place is not the only question. There are multiple selection quandaries facing Popovic and his staff, as they stare down their final group stage game. A defeat against Paraguay sends Australia into limbo, and a nervous wait to see whether they can sneak into the knockout rounds as one of the best third-placed sides.

While direct progression is far more likely – with either a draw or a win – the possibility of World Cup elimination within two days is a reminder of the pressure Popovic is under to get his approach right for the clash at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, the 68,500-capacity home of the NFL’s 49ers around an hour south-east of San Francisco.

Okon acknowledged that pressure, but said its impact is not yet obvious on Popovic. “He’s quite calm, he’s focused as you would expect. He has a strong belief in his process and his preparation for games so, given the importance of the game, nothing’s really changed,” he said of his long-time friend and former Socceroos teammate. “As we get closer to the game, like all of us, he’ll feel the nerves – that’s what such an occasion brings – but he’s quite cool under pressure.”

Cristian Volpato’s second-half performance provided a bright spot in the defeat to the USA, and triggered calls for his inclusion in the starting XI. But the goalscorers against Turkey – Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe – are also in contention for the roles as wingers. Assuming Mohamed Touré remains the starting striker, that leaves staff working out how to fit three into two.

Popovic said after the USA defeat Irankunda’s physical condition was a selection consideration. Okon did not name individuals on Tuesday, but said decisions were made on a range of factors, and not just talent.

“I can understand people want to see all of those types of players play the maximum minutes, certainly from the start of the game,” Okon said. “But every player is evaluated on how they are physically, mentally and tactically, and sometimes the decisions will fall on one of those three, or all of those three.”

The risk of one of Australia’s key players being suspended for a last-32 clash due to the accumulation of two yellow cards also hangs over Popovic’s decision-making. Four of the five defenders likely to start against Paraguay – Jordy Bos, Harry Souttar, Circati and Jacob Italiano – have already received one yellow card. A second one against Paraguay means, if the Socceroos were to progress, they would be suspended for a knockout match.

Okon said the risk has been discussed but it is not a major consideration before kick-off, even though he admitted it might influence their decisions during the match. “I’ve been a player and I know at times it can be a bit tricky in the game when you know that you’re maybe one tackle off getting a yellow card,” he said. “But I think the players are sensible enough, with enough experience to understand what needs to happen in each moment.”

Mat Leckie, who started as winger against the USA, will miss the match with a hamstring strain. Okon was not optimistic when speaking about his recovery. “What happens post-Paraguay will determine what happens with his rehab, at the moment he’s not active,” he said. “It’s very unfortunate, he’s an experienced player, we could have continued to use him certainly in this game but whatever happens with Mat will depend on how far we go into this.”

Okon was the only member of the Socceroos party put up for media on Tuesday, two days before the match, as the squad locks in on the challenge ahead of them. Whatever the opinions around the XI – from fans, commentators, former Socceroos, parents of players, even assistant coaches – Okon said the team that walks out into San Francisco Bay Area Stadium will be a decision for Popovic. “At the end, it’s always the decision of the head coach,” Okon said. “I would be surprised if there weren’t any changes. How many? That’s still up in the air.”