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Péter Magyar’s resounding election victory brings an end to 16 years of rightwing populist rule under Viktor Orbán. But the effects of that win are likely to be felt well beyond Hungary’s borders, from Brussels to Moscow and from Kyiv to Washington.

What does the win mean for the EU?

Orbán’s frequent efforts to undermine the EU’s attempts at collective action – not to mention his proud defence of the “illiberal democracy” that Hungary became on his watch – exasperated and infuriated the European Commission. His vetoing of a massive EU loan to Ukraine and his strategy of delaying, and sometimes opposing, EU sanctions on Russia, left the bloc looking toothless and divided.

Meanwhile, his contempt for democratic norms, failure to tackle corruption, disdain for the rule of law and his crackdowns on the media led the commission to suspend billions of euros in funding to Hungary.

Magyar, on the other hand, has promised to repair Hungary’s strained relationship with the bloc and to address many of its concerns. In a speech on Monday morning, he pledged to work for “a free, European, well-functioning and compassionate Hungary”.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, made plain her relief at the election result – and her hopes for rebooted relations with Hungary – in a post on X. “Hungary has chosen Europe,” she wrote. “Europe has always chosen Hungary. Together, we are stronger. A country returns to its European path. The Union grows stronger.”

And what about Russia and Ukraine?

Magyar’s predecessor made no secret of his proximity to Moscow. Not only did Orbán continue buying Russian oil and gas – and meeting Vladimir Putin after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – he also blocked a vital €90bn (£78bn) EU loan to Ukraine for urgently needed military aid and government support. Recent media reports have also suggested that Budapest shared confidential EU information with the Kremlin, prompting further fury from the EU.

For the time being, Magyar’s lines on Ukraine look not unlike some of Orbán’s: the new prime minister has said he will push on with Hungary’s opposition to sending arms to the country and to fast-tracking EU entry for Kyiv. But the new government could well choose to show a more conciliatory direction by dropping its opposition to the €90bn EU loan; given his stated aim of repairing relations, it seems unlikely Magyar will wield vetos as freely as his predecessor.

The Kremlin has said it hopes to “continue pragmatic contacts with the new leadership”, while Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said his country was “ready for meetings and joint constructive work for the benefit of both nations, as well as peace, security and stability in Europe”.

What effect will Orbán’s defeat have on rightwing and far-right parties in Europe?

The outgoing prime minister’s loud and aggressive defence of traditional Christian family values made him a hugely popular and potent figurehead for his rightwing and far-right contemporaries.

While his critics saw him as illiberal, intolerant and profoundly undemocratic, his admirers delighted in his scorn for many of the values held dear across the majority of EU countries. Orbán’s departure has left them mourning a much-cherished totem.

The French far-right leader Marine Le Pen said Orbán had “defended Hungary’s freedom and sovereignty with courage and determination”, while Italy’s pragmatic prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, congratulated Magyar but also thanked Orbán for “intense collaboration for these years”.

Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain’s far-right Vox party, was less measured. “Hungary was the only European nation that was safe from the Islamist invasion,” he wrote on X on Sunday night. “The defeat of Victor Orbán puts that in danger. Orbán leaves a Hungary that is much better than the one he inherited. And he leaves a deep mark on all the patriotic forces of Europe.”

And where does it leave Trump and the US?

Orbán’s defeat will also come as a blow to Donald Trump, his administration and the Maga movement. As Trump’s former adviser Steve Bannon once noted, Orbán was “Trump before Trump” – a beguiling, one-man blueprint for illiberal, bulldozer politics. The US president had repeatedly endorsed Orbán and promised, three days ago, to bring US “economic might” to the country if Orbán was re-elected.

Orbán’s political and ideological importance to Trump was further underlined by last week’s visit by the US vice-president, JD Vance. “We had to show that there are actually lots of friends across the world who recognise that Viktor and his government are doing a good job and they’re important partners for peace,”Vance said as he attempted to brush off accusations of US electoral interference.

The scale of Magyar’s victory has already prompted some on the European right to ponder whether a Trump endorsement could actually be the kiss of death. Belgium’s defence minister, Theo Francken, described Vance’s support as “a really dumb campaign move”, adding: “I’m a rightwing politician and think the far right is being really stupid. And that the Magas should really stop campaigning internationally because everyone and everything they support loses the elections. Lead instead of gold. Best advertisement for the left. Crazy.”