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A New South Wales government plan to improve river flows after catastrophic fish deaths in the northern Murray-Darling Basin is in doubt, after the federal government refused a $360m funding request.

But environment advocates and experts say the NSW government must act on its promise to restore the Darling-Baaka river – and follow through on recommendations from its own expert panel – with one landholder warning of further fish kills as soon as next summer.

Days after winning the 2023 election, the premier, Chris Minns, and senior state ministers visited Menindee and committed to an investigation of the mass fish kills.

Since then, the state’s water minister, Rose Jackson, said the government had developed a series of “potential rule-based changes to water sharing plans which we believe would deliver improved connectivity and significant long-term benefits for the Murray-Darling Basin”.

She said that she had written to the federal environment minister, Murray Watt, requesting support for the proposal and up to $360m “for water recovery towards the Basin Plan”.

The funding request – which Jackson said was “open to negotiation” – was rejected. On Friday, Jackson said her government “is now considering next steps and other options for improving connectivity”.

The proposal came after the government established an expert panel under a program called the northern basin connectivity program, which recommended limiting upstream over-extraction during dry periods, to help maintain flows in tributaries into the Darling-Baaka river down to Menindee Lakes. This was to try to reduce the risk of catastrophes like fish kills and large-scale drying.

The panel delivered its final report two years ago, but the state government is yet to implement it.

Stuart Le Lievre, a grazier on land between Tilpa and Louth in far-western NSW, said he was worried about the lack of action.

Already, the Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared an El Niño this year, a phenomenon linked to hotter and drier conditions for Australia.

“If we do not get that northern basin connectivity program in it’s entirety, the Barwon-Darling is terminal,” Le Lievre said.

He said that without reasonable flows “there will be another fish kill” potentially as soon as summer, and believed it was the state government’s responsibility to act regardless of federal funding.

“Our communities, our biodiversity – don’t we deserve fresh water?” he said.

“Bourke will run out of water. Wilcannia, Tilpa, Louth will run out of water.

“But also what about our stock and domestic water for those that live on the river like I do?”

Cate Faehrmann, the NSW Greens’ water spokesperson, said the northern basin connectivity program was meant to “turn the tide on mass fish kills in the Barwon-Darling and blue green algae outbreaks across the northern basin”.

“As one of its signature water policies it beggars belief that the Minns government was expecting the Commonwealth to foot the entire bill [because] otherwise it would dump it,” she said.

“It’s also, frankly, bizarre that after years of analysis, modelling and expert advice, they would just throw up their hands in despair and say it’s all too hard.”

But Jackson has denied the program has been shelved.

Emma Carmody, South Australia’s River Murray commissioner, said “connectivity isn’t optional”.

“It’s what stands between a healthy river and fish kills, blue-green algae outbreaks, and communities left without safe water,” she said.

“We know what’s needed – mandatory, enforceable rules that protect flows all the way downstream and into Menindee Lakes.”

Carmody said the NSW government’s decisions would affect other basin jurisdictions, including South Australia.

“Water from Menindee Lakes supplies the River Murray, and when it arrives in poor condition, it’s South Australian communities and the South Australian government left to manage the consequences and cover the cost.”

A federal government spokesperson said the government was waiting for the outcome of several reviews, including of the basin plan and the Water Act.

“We welcome efforts by the NSW government to deliver genuine environmental outcomes by improving connectivity in the Northern Basin and will continue to work with them to secure long-term sustainability for Basin communities and the environment,” they said.