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Shoppers are buying canned tomatoes, lentils and long-life milk. Tinned spaghetti is popular, and so is rice. As fears that an enduring Middle East conflict could lead to a prolonged fuel crisis and higher food prices – and even shortages – long-life pantry staples are squarely back on the menu.

Ballarat resident Robyn Power says families in her community are starting to shop like they did during the pandemic.

“It started in Covid, and now with this whole fuel thing, we’re almost going back there again,” says Power, a mother of two who runs a community group that shares meal plans and other budget saving ideas.

“People are worried that trucks will run out of diesel and won’t be able to get goods to the shops, or they are trying to drive less often to the supermarket themselves, so they are getting staples because they last longer and can fill out a meal.

“People are thinking, if anything does happen, at least I’ve got baked beans and spaghetti.”

The change in buying habits is being driven by several colliding forces, according to Power, including reigniting cost-of-living pressures and the general feeling of instability sparked by the fuel crunch.

Food manufacturers have already noticed the change.

SPC Global says it is recording a surge in purchases for its canned tomatoes, baked beans and packaged fruit as households stockpile long-life pantry staples in response to the Middle East conflict.

The company says it is now securing “additional materials and volume” to ensure supply of products for the increased demand that has risen as much as 20% in recent weeks.

SPC says it is anticipating increased household stockpiling as a result of the conflict.

The buying practice is sometimes known as “pantry loading” or “back stocking”.

Several food manufacturers Guardian Australia spoke to say they started noticing buying changes at the end of March, when it became clear to consumers the effects of the conflict could be long lasting, and talk of fuel rations started to be openly discussed.

The manufacturers caution that the behavioural changes are still in their early stages, with no indication that the empty supermarket shelves seen during the pandemic will recur.

The Iran war has triggered huge volatility in oil prices, sparking immediate changes in consumer behaviour, including a rapid rise in electric vehicle sales. More Australians are also working from home and taking public transport, as road traffic on key city thoroughfares drops.

High diesel prices caused by supply disruptions in the strait of Hormuz are fuelling expectations that food prices will rise as fertiliser, general farming and transport costs increase.

The current two-week ceasefire that is restoring hopes of an easing in fuel prices is widely viewed as fragile.

Social enterprise business Box Divvy says while pricing changes for produce have been mixed in recent weeks, fuel levies have added up to $7 to a 10kg box of field tomatoes in some areas.

The Box Divvy co-founder Anton van den Berg says increasing farming costs flow through to customers over time.

“What we’re seeing now is the early stage of that. The next few weeks will be telling in terms of how much of this starts to show up more clearly in prices,” he says.

In Ballarat, Power says some of the behavioural shifts towards long-life staples are practical changes people are making to address cost-of-living pressures made worse by high fuel prices.

“If people are worried about the price of meat, you can do so much with beans instead, plus they’re filling,” says Power.

“They can stretch your meal out further, and you can use them many different ways.

“Interest rates have been going up, rents are high, and now fuel prices are high. It’s just about trying to make your money go further.”