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We’re yet to see next month’s Australian federal budget, so mark this column with an asterisk. But barring a late change it is likely it will do a remarkable thing: give fossil fuel industries what they want.

That’s worth noting this week, as representatives from 57 national governments including Australia meet in Colombia for the first international conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels. That gathering heard France aims to remove coal from its national grid by 2027, end oil dependency by 2045 and stop using fossil gas by 2050.

The messaging from the Australian government before the budget is a different story. For now, at least, it appears to have rejected campaigns for two measures opposed by the gas and mining interests that have built momentum in recent months, including in some unlikely places.

The first backs a big lift in the tax levied on gas export developments. The second argues for an overhaul of the fuel tax credit scheme that makes big miners exempt from the diesel excise paid by households, tradies and small businesses.

Both could help repair a budget in structural deficit and reduce implicit subsidies for multinational companies that produce and use fossil fuels.

An increased gas tax has support across the political spectrum – from the Greens and One Nation, senator David Pocock and lower house independent MPs, and possibly would-be Liberal leader Andrew Hastie. Beyond Canberra, support spans influencers, unions, heavyweight economists, former bureaucrats, ex-gas industry executives and the broader environment movement.

Gas is mostly methane, a potent fossil fuel that releases carbon dioxide when burned and contributes significantly to the climate crisis. But the push for the tax has little to do with the pollution that is pumped into the atmosphere, or the government’s promise to reduce it.

Those behind the campaign argue that fossil fuel companies have been allowed to reap billions in profits from resources that belong to the Australian people, and the country should claim much more in return. The most prominent campaign is for a 25% levy on all gas shipped overseas.

According to the Australia Institute thinktank, it would have already yielded about $70bn if introduced when Labor was elected in mid-2022. Others, such as former Treasury chief Ken Henry, have argued for a 100% windfall profits tax.

An Essential poll published by Guardian Australia on Thursday demonstrates something like this would have strong public support. A strong majority – 57% of voters – supported taxing gas export profits. Only 12% said they were opposed. Support was highest among older voters and consistent across voters for all parties, including Labor and the Coalition.

Given this, it’s not surprising senior government members have been open to at least looking at the idea. They asked Treasury to model both a tax on windfall profits and changes to the existing petroleum resource rent tax.

Some in Labor have been strongly supportive. Former industry and science minister Ed Husic has repeatedly backed the 25% plan, and criticised a multi-million dollar gas industry advertising campaign to fight an export tax as “defending the indefensible”. The party’s conservation wing, the Labor Environment Action Network, wants a “very substantial tax” on windfall profits.

But Anthony Albanese has landed in a different position. He flew to Perth to assure a mining and gas industry breakfast on Wednesday there would be no changes that affected existing gas export contracts.

He linked his stance to the global fossil fuel crisis, emphasising he would not jeopardise relationships with countries that buy Australia’s fossil fuels and control the southern supply of liquid fossil fuels – diesel, petrol and aviation fuel. For this reason, he said, he could “confirm that the budget will not undermine existing contracts on gas exports”.

Albanese’s tells gas industry contracts won’t change

In a literal sense, this doesn’t really mean anything of substance. Treasury officials last week indicated at a Senate inquiry that introducing a 25% tax would not affect existing contracts – the additional cost would be borne by the gas producers. But Albanese’s message to the gas industry and the ardently pro-gas Western Australian Labor government was political, not technical. Existing contracts will be left alone.

The prime minister avoided directly answering questions on whether that meant he was ruling out any tax changes, including a windfall profit tax or a levy on future contracts. It’s a potentially meaningful caveat in the long run, given many existing gas export contracts only run to 2030. But Albanese forcefully defended the existing tax settings, dismissing criticisms as dishonest and populist. No one watching the issue expects an immediate shift.

It is a similar tale with the fuel tax credit scheme, which gives miners, farmers and tourism and heavy freight operators a full rebate on the 52.6c a litre diesel excise.

Again, the campaign for change has been backed by some improbable sources – most strikingly, mining magnate Andrew Forrest’s company Fortescue. It launched an emotive advertising campaign arguing that 18 major mining companies get $3bn a year to reduce their dirty fuel bill while households are struggling with rising living costs.

Fortescue is among the companies that would be affected by a revamp, though it has claimed its Pilbara mines will run on a green grid and electric trucks before 2030. It wants the system capped at $50m per mining company a year and has suggested the savings could be directed to help the mining industry cut emissions, or become general budget revenue.

Others arguing for the diesel rebate to be wound back include people who have the government’s ear, such as the ACTU and Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean, who described continuing to pay the diesel rebate to miners as “insane”.

As with the gas tax campaign, there is at least some support for these arguments within the government. But the hope of changing the scheme this year fell away when the US and Israel war on Iran began and pushed diesel prices skyward.

If that remains the case, some people will understandably interpret the government’s position on the gas tax and the fuel credit scheme as evidence Labor is captured by fossil fuel industries. That idea will likely be reinforced if the budget focuses on ensuring long-term petrol and diesel supplies without similarly accelerating the shift to clean energy and electrification.

The picture is slightly more complicated than that. Analysts expect the flow of fuel and goods to get worse before it gets better. Securing supply would be any government’s priority. On energy, Labor does offer meaningful support for renewable energy and batteries.

But there is much less enthusiasm for discussing the other half of the equation: the need to stop encouraging and promoting fossil fuel use. And the climate problem can’t be solved unless that happens.

If Australia and its trading partners are serious about their commitments, the seaborne trade of coal, oil and gas will need to be quickly – in a couple of decades – wound down and replaced with alternatives. For now, discussion in Australia mostly either treats that as a distant challenge, or dismisses it outright. It underlines how far there is to go.

Despite this, campaigners see reason for optimism in the surge of cross-community support for a gas tax this year. They reckon the government has felt pressure over an issue that until recently had little traction. It suggests change is possible.

Wherever the budget lands, they say that push will continue.