www.silverguide.site –

‘A per capita recession is likely’

The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and a major retreat in global oil prices have allayed fears of a recession in Australia, despite substandard growth expected in the year ahead.

Belinda Allen, CBA’s head of Australian economics, said she had never thought a recession was likely, but that “the impact of the war on energy markets and the economy were less severe than we had anticipated”.

Oil prices did not rise as much, and the cut to the excise tax blunted the impact on households.

But Tim Robinson, an associate professor at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, warned GDP per person was set to contract for two straight quarters.

Growth is likely to be quite weak for the rest of the year, and because of that, a per capita recession is likely.

They [per capita recessions] are not as severe as a conventional recession – the changes in unemployment tend to be far less severe – but they do constitute a decline in living standards.

Read more:

Pressure on Albanese to raise human rights concerns with Narendra Modi in Melbourne

Anthony Albanese will meet with the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, at a leadership summit in Melbourne this week, with calls for the Australian leader to raise human rights concerns.

Modi’s visit begins on Wednesday evening – his third since becoming prime minister – with the leaders to cross paths at the Australia-India Annual Leaders’ Summit (8-10 July).

Amnesty International called for Australia to encourage India to ensure journalists and human rights advocates could work free from intimidation and address discrimination of religious and ethnic minorities.

Read more:

Morning, everyone. Nick Visser here to take over the blog. Let’s get to it.

Following on from last post …

The outage is apparently playing havoc with morning TV.

ABC News 24 breakfast host James Glenday just said:

A number of members of our team have been affected by this, including some of the people we’re trying to get on the show this morning.

Updated

Telstra users report widespread mobile network outage

Telstra is suffering an apparently widespread problem on its mobile network.

On social media the carrier said:

We’re looking into an issue affecting some mobile calls and data connections. If you’re having trouble connecting at first, try again as it may work on a retry. We’re on it and will share an update as soon as it’s fixed. Thanks for bearing with us.

Thousands of users have already reported problems with Telstra to the site Downdetector.com.au, starting around 4am today.

Updated

Albanese to host three Pacific leaders in Brisbane

Anthony Albanese will host a trio of Pacific prime ministers as he tries to bolster Australia’s regional influence amid the creeping threat of China, Australian Associated Press reports.

The bilateral meetings with Papua New Guinea’s James Marape, Tonga’s Lord Fakafānua and Samoa’s La’auli Leuatea Schmidt will be followed by a Pacific rugby league event in Brisbane with all four leaders.

Albanese will also host the prime ministers at the State of Origin decider at Suncorp Stadium.

The prime minister has returned from a successful trip to Fiji and Solomon Islands, during which he signed a significant defence pact with Fiji.

The Ocean of Peace Alliance, which could be expanded to other Pacific nations, makes Fiji Australia’s fourth official ally.

Henry Ivarature of the Australian Pacific Security College said continued talks, to expand Australia’s presence in neighbouring islands, signal a new era of strength for the region.

“I think Australia has learned to listen and it has learned to accept the way Pacific governments work. It has been patient,” he said.

But Ivarature said attention would now turn to sustaining trust across a long period. The Brisbane talks will likely focus on expanding military and aid work in the Pacific, as China looms as a geopolitical threat.

Good morning

Welcome to Guardian Australia’s live news coverage.

I’m Martin Farrer and I’ll bring you the morning’s news before your regular blogger takes the wheel.

We start with a look at the PM’s day of diplomacy: following his recent Pacific push – and with all eyes on China after the superpower’s missile test – Anthony Albanese is hosting the leaders of Papua New Guinea, Tonga and Samoa for talks in Brisbane (and, not coincidentally, a chance to watch the State of Origin decider).

Stay with us.